As we approach the one-year mark of AI’s rapid acceleration last spring, it’s reminiscent of the infamous “tulip mania” of the Dutch Golden Age, a prime example of a financial bubble in economic history. The question on everyone’s mind in Suwannee County and beyond is, will ChatGPT bloom and impact workers’ jobs, or will it wilt as the proverbial petals fall off?
Opinions are varied on whether AI will replace jobs or enhance them, but there’s an emerging trend: Managers are leveraging these technological advancements against workers. One notable example is IBM, whose shares have increased almost 17% since the start of the year, partially attributed to the company’s adoption of AI. Arvind Krishna, IBM’s CEO, has been candid about the potential of AI to replace some jobs at IBM, even reducing the number of employees working on relative manual HR-related work from 700 to about 50.
However, Krishna’s stance on the topic fluctuates, alternating between stating that AI will replace certain roles and claiming that AI will generate more jobs than it eliminates. As of now, the decision-makers’ stance on AI implementation remains uncertain.
Several bosses are contemplating following IBM’s model, as indicated by a massive survey: a staggering 41% of managers are planning to replace workers with cheaper AI products this year, according to a survey of 3,000 managers by software company beautiful.ai.
These findings arrive amidst a wave of worker dissatisfaction and instability. Employees’ sentiments about their jobs are at an all-time low since the pandemic began, as per a survey from BambooHR. Many Americans, struggling to make ends meet, have reported a loss of faith in almost every profession in the latest Gallup Honesty and Ethics poll.
Are Managers Turning to Sci-fi or Are They Merely Spectators of the AI Surge?
When AI first began to expand in 2023, there was a wave of fear. Many people were alarmed as 61% of Americans believed the new products could threaten civilization, as per a Reuters/Ipsos survey.
As initial reactions to AI faded over the course of the year, new theories about AI’s trajectory emerged. Some suggested that the risk of losing a job depended on factors like your industry, seniority level, or workplace location. Junior workers, who are naturally more vulnerable, reported the greatest fear of losing their jobs to AI. A total of 79% reported they wanted training in the area, according to consulting firm Oliver Wyman.
Noted economic writer Noah Smith and Scottish economic historian Niall Ferguson recently shared their perspectives on the AI debate. Smith suggested that in the age of AI dominance, regular humans might still have plentiful, high-paying jobs, while Ferguson cautioned that the negative impacts of AI would be geographically and demographically concentrated, and labor markets in the hardest-hit places would not adapt smoothly.
After investors have poured billions into AI, Rana Foroohar of the Financial Times cautions that we might be getting ahead of ourselves. She warns that we are still in the early stages of innovation, and this will take decades to play out—and, of course, that the bubble could soon burst.
It seems we are in uncharted territory, or shaky grounds if you consider the experts’ mixed predictions. This suggests that managers may not have the AI leverage they think they do to suppress a potential worker uprising. And even if they did, managers might be better off worrying for their own roles. Almost half (48%) of managers suggested that AI tools were a threat to their salaries and would lead to wage declines throughout the workforce this year. Even more (50%) reported fear that their management position would experience a pay cut related to AI.
However, most managers aren’t actually aiming for a fully robotic workforce. Instead, 66% of managers are looking to use AI tools to enhance their employees’ productivity. Merely 12% of bosses said they’re using AI with the intention of downsizing or spending less on their workforce. So, managers might just be bluffing or simply weighing their options at the moment.
“A.I. may not replace managers, but the managers that use A.I. will replace the managers that do not,” said Rob Thomas, IBM’s chief commercial officer, during a conference, according to TechCrunch. “It really does change how people work.”
