Are you one of many who’s having trouble finding a new show to binge-watch? Well, this isn’t a simple coincidence. The golden age of television, with its numerous scripted TV shows, seems to be on a decline, backing up FX’s John Landgraf’s prediction of the industry reaching “peak TV” in 2016.
The last two decades witnessed several revolutions in televised entertainment. It began with HBO’s introduction of “prestige TV” in the early 2000s. This was followed by the “golden age of TV” when prestige moved to other networks such as FX and AMC. The timeline continued with Netflix’s big bang with “House of Cards,” ushering in the “cord-cutting” era which culminated in the “streaming wars.” This entire journey ended with Netflix standing tall, and Landgraf, now the chairman of FX Networks, emerged as a key figure in this evolution.
The Peak of Peak TV
Landgraf’s prediction seems to have come true nearly a decade later. Last year, the number of scripted series fell by 14%. The number of adult scripted series fell to 516 in 2023 from an all-time-high of 600 the year before. This was only the second time the number of shows had declined year-over-year since Landgraf began his count in the early 2000s. His data reveals that Wall Street’s pressure on major studios to curb their spending and the maturing streaming industry are contributing to this drop.
Landgraf spoke to Variety about how last year’s strikes by screenwriters and actors led to the delayed release of some programming. However, he believes the drawdown of production was already underway even before the Hollywood work stoppage. “The realignment of industry priorities from streaming scale at any cost to profitability continued after the strikes, leading to the cancellation of numerous projects,” Landgraf explained.
The Transition from Prestige to Peak
The explosion of TV series began after Netflix fired the “House of Cards” starting gun and streaming took off in the early 2010s. In 2009, there were 210 scripted shows. This number doubled to 422 just six years later. The “peak TV” era brought about critically acclaimed shows such as “Breaking Bad,” “Game of Thrones,” and “Mad Men.” However, Wall Street has shifted its expectations from growth at any cost to profitability as the streaming sector matures.
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes following the pandemic marked an end to the “easy money” that fueled growth across industries. Just as rising interest rates have affected venture capital investments in tech, Wall Street began demanding streamers to tighten their belts. This has resulted in streaming subscribers paying more for less, with streaming slowly morphing back into old TV—ads and all.
Streaming Leader Netflix’s Strategy Shift
Last year, Netflix released 130 fewer original programs compared to the previous year, marking a decline of 16%. In a controversial move to increase subscribers, Netflix also cracked down on password sharing. This effort added nearly nine million subscribers in the quarter immediately following the change. In its most recent quarter, it added another 13 million, and revenue jumped double digits.
Following Netflix’s footsteps, other streamers are also making changes. Last year, Disney+ hiked the price for its ad-supported tier by $3, and in January, Amazon changed the default viewing experience on Prime Video to be ad-supported, charging customers to opt out of commercials. This indicates a clear shift in industry priorities, as Landgraf predicted.
Landgraf’s prediction of 2022 being the “high water mark” of TV show output, marking “the peak of peak TV era,” seems to have come true. Only time will tell how this shift will affect the television industry and viewers’ experience in the long run.
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