In the most recent presidential debate, former President Donald Trump sparked controversy with a comment about “Black Jobs,” causing a flurry of reactions on social media from Black Americans. Trump voiced a belief that President Joe Biden’s “big kill” on Black people was facilitating a surge of immigrants across the border, thereby reducing job opportunities for Black and Hispanic Americans.
Trump stated, “They’re taking Black jobs now — and it could be 18, it could be 19 and even 20 million people…They’re taking Black jobs, and they’re taking Hispanic jobs, and you haven’t seen it yet, but you’re gonna see something that’s going to be the worst in our history.”
Reactions from Experts
Well-known labor economist Michelle Holder, who specializes in racial inequities, expressed her disappointment and confusion regarding this term. In a conversation with Fortune, she stated, “It was insulting to me, as a Black labor economist, to hear the term ‘black jobs.’” Holder suggests that this comment, intended to attract Black voters, likely had the opposite effect.
Despite Trump’s assertions, Black workers have seen positive employment trends under both his and Biden’s administrations. The Black unemployment rate has remained at historically low levels, reaching a record low of 5.3% in September 2019 under Trump, and a further record low of 4.8% in April 2023 under Biden. Currently, Black unemployment has risen slightly to 6.1%, in line with the national rate of 4%.
Moreover, the percentage of Black Americans in employment — at 59.1% — is still near a peak of 60.4% set last year.
Economists’ Perspective on Immigration and Jobs
Despite these figures, the idea persists that an increase in immigration results in decreased job opportunities and wage suppression for native-born workers. Fortune sought the opinion of Lant Pritchett, a leading immigration economist at Harvard’s Kennedy School and the University of Oxford. According to Pritchett, economists largely agree that immigration does not detract from native job opportunities.
UC Berkeley economist David Card conducted a groundbreaking study on the impact of the 1980 Mariel Boatlift, which saw hundreds of thousands of Cubans immigrate to Miami in a matter of months. Card’s study found “no effect on the wages or unemployment rates of less-skilled workers.” Surprisingly, wages actually increased in Miami relative to their previous trend.
This unexpected result prompted multiple re-analyses of Card’s study, all of which supported his original conclusion. Card himself replicated the study with different cities and immigrant demographics, consistently finding that immigration does not negatively impact native job opportunities.
In 2017, Harvard economist George Borjas replicated Card’s study, defining “low-skilled” workers more narrowly and found their wages collapsed. This controversial finding was highlighted by multiple media outlets and was celebrated by Republicans. However, other economists, including Card, cast doubt on Borjas’ findings.
The Need for More Workers
Pritchett’s research suggests that the U.S. will soon face a significant labor gap due to its aging population. The U.S. working-aged population is expected to fall by 4.5 million people from 2020 to 2030 without immigration, according to a United Nations report. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts 3.2 million net new jobs in entry-level positions from 2021 to 2031.
As Pritchett humorously points out, “You can’t fill 3 million new jobs with negative 4 million people.” The U.S. will struggle to find a worker for every job, reversing the previous policy challenge of finding a job for every worker.
Some experts have suggested that immigrants are “saving” the U.S. from a labor market crisis. From January 2020 to July 2023, the immigrant labor force grew by 9.5%, dwarfing the 1.5% growth rate among native-born workers.
Economic Issues Concerning Black Americans
Michelle Holder asserts that the key economic concerns for Black Americans are wages, inflation, and unemployment. She questions whether the current economic conditions can be sustained and how well Black Americans are being paid in their jobs.
Rather than focusing on immigration as a potential threat, Holder urges Trump to address these issues, stating, “That’s what I think black voters want to hear about. I just don’t think we are really wrapped up in trying to blame migrants for any problems facing the black community at this point.”
