Despite record-breaking stocks and a cooled inflation rate, a recent poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research reveals that only 35% of U.S. adults perceive the national economy as good. This figure marks a slight improvement from the 30% recorded late last year and the 24% from the year before. Still, a significant 65% of adults consider the economy poor, albeit this is an improvement from last year’s 76%.
The Economy’s Role in the Presidential Race
With the presidential election looming, voters’ confidence in the economy could play a crucial role as it remains a top-rated issue. Contrary to predictions from Wall Street and academic economists, the economy grew impressively last year amidst an inflation rate that returned closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The latest data also disproved the anticipated recession as an aftermath of efforts to reduce inflation.
President Joe Biden and his team have emphasized the economic positives as consumer sentiment recovers. Biden draws a stark contrast to his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, whose term was characterized by significant job losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic, despite his supporters’ positive memory of his economic leadership.
Public Sentiment: The Personal Lens
How do U.S. adults perceive the economy? The answer often depends on personal experiences and concerns. Some base their judgment on grocery bills and gas prices, while others gauge the economy through the performance of their investments. Factors like housing prices, job prospects for their children, and the upward trajectory of the federal debt also come into play.
Take Molly Kapsner, for instance. This Wisconsin farm dweller evaluates the economy as “pretty well” because her three college-graduating kids have job options. On the other hand, David Veksler, a software engineer manager from Denver, worries about the rising federal debt and its potential long-term effects on growth.
Varying Views on Economic Performance
Interestingly, the new poll reveals that the stronger economy has not yet translated into greater support for Biden. His approval rating stands at 38%, consistent with the figures over the past two years. His economic handling scores similarly at 35%.
Political divide persists in economic perceptions. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to describe the economy as good, 58% to 15%. However, views have improved slightly since last year when 41% of Democrats and 8% of Republicans considered the economy good.
It appears that Biden’s approval ratings may have hit a ceiling, regardless of the economy’s performance. Yet, the poll shows a brighter economic outlook from key voter demographics: college graduates and older adults, who typically vote at higher rates.
What does this mean for the upcoming election? Only time will tell. For now, the Federal Reserve and the White House continue to monitor the economy’s performance closely, with the latter focusing on hard data to make its case.
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